While the Droid is not yet the iPhone killer many had hoped for, its success has been far greater than what Motorola would have hoped. There are quite clear indications that the Droid will exceed the earlier conservative forecast of one million phones by 80%.
The Droid closed the week of 27-Nov-09, after 4 weeks of sales with retail sales of 700-800K (~750K) of which the first week contributed close to 250K of sales. This would indicate that it clocked retail sales of close to 500K in the last 3 weeks of Nov-09. This would translate into a weekly sales rate of around 167K. While we believe that the momentum continue we are taking a conservative run rate of 110K for the next 5 weeks from the week ending 27-Nov till the end of the year.
This would translate to a total of 750+550K = 1.3 million Droid’s sold to the retail. We would estimate another 500K inventory in the channel lead to a sell in of 1.8 million of Droids of which 1.3 million would be sell thru.
This would be really satisfying compared to the forecasts before the launch (Macquarie Research) which indicated a sell in of 800-900K and a sell thru of 1.2 million.
We conservatively estimate that Milestone the multi-touch European cousin of the Droid will contribute 250K. The Milestone is currently available in Germany and France and is available for pre-booking in the UK
The other Android phone namely the CLIQ/DEXT has not done well. The jury is out, whether it was not as well promoted as the Droid or it just did not do well. One can expect a volume of around 200K which is quite a steep reduction of ~300K+.
Motorola would sure end the year on a high with volume of 2.25 million Android phones up from the earlier forecast of 1.3 million.